Will They Or Won't They?

There is a question I'm currently asking everybody I come across. That question is;

"Do you think these elections will actually hold?"

Unfortunately only one in ten people believes the elections will hold. When I ask those that do not believe the elections will hold to explain the reason for their answer they all say the same thing;

'The present government doesn't want to go because they are scared of being probed if Buhari wins."

Many are even of the view that Jonathan doesn't actually want to remain in office. That it is the people around him that are forcing his hand; that they are the ones who fear being probed by a new administration.

I tend to agree with this view. I've never believed that President Jonathan is a bad person. It is the people around him - certain advisers and ministers that have not only held this government to ransom, but also shamelessly raped the nation's coffers.

So what are the likely scenarios?

1. The elections hold, and PDP wins by a landslide

2. The elections hold, and PDP wins fairly

3. The elections hold, and PDP rigs a win

4. The elections hold and APC rigs a win

5. The elections are postponed for twelve months for security reasons, and the government continues as is.

6. The elections are cancelled, and a government of national unity is set up and asked to preside over elections in 18 / 24 months time.

Options 2, 3, 5, and 6 would certainly protect those who fear being probed.

But the real question is, how easy is it to impose such options?

There's a psychological term called 'Limiting Belief Boundaries'. It means allowing certain beliefs that hold us back to sit comfortably in our subconscious. In other words we Nigerians have a tendency to accept certain absurdities as the norm, or as perfectly okay, even though anyone in their right senses should never even contemplate accepting such absurdities.

Are we really so docile that we will just grumble quietly and continue as normal?